Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Friday, May 8, 2026 between BV Borussia 09 Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Borussia Dortmund will host Eintracht Frankfurt at Signal Iduna Park on Friday, 8 May 2026 in a Bundesliga fixture. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 22% implied probability for a Dortmund victory, with traders pricing in Frankfurt's competitive standing and Dortmund's home advantage at a relatively balanced level. This settlement window closes at 18:30 UTC on match day.
Historically, Dortmund's home record against Frankfurt has favoured the hosts, though Frankfurt has shown improved consistency in recent seasons under successive managerial tenures. The 22% probability for a Dortmund win appears conservative relative to typical home-ground advantages in the Bundesliga, where hosts win approximately 45–50% of fixtures. This suggests the market is either pricing in Frankfurt's recent form, potential squad rotation by Dortmund late in the season, or injury concerns affecting either side's starting eleven.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official squad announcements in the days preceding the match, particularly regarding injury status for key players. Bundesliga fixture congestion in early May often influences rotation decisions, especially for clubs with European commitments or title races still unresolved. Frankfurt's position in the final standings and any European qualification scenarios will affect their motivation and available personnel. Weather conditions at Signal Iduna Park on the day may also influence match dynamics, though this typically has marginal impact on implied probabilities in established markets.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.4M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.4M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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