Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Hamburger SV.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Draw (Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV) | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Hamburger SV | 11% YES | 90% NO |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen will face Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome at 75 per cent implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that Leverkusen will secure victory in this encounter. Settlement occurs at 13:30 UTC on the scheduled match date.
Leverkusen's recent domestic form provides context for the current pricing. The club finished second in the 2024–25 Bundesliga season and maintains a strong competitive record against lower-ranked opponents. Hamburger SV, historically a top-flight club, has experienced periods of inconsistency in recent campaigns. Historical head-to-head records and current league positioning typically favour Leverkusen in such matchups, which aligns with the 75 per cent probability now reflected across the order book.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official squad announcements in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly regarding injury status for key players at either club. Leverkusen's European commitments in spring 2026 may affect squad rotation decisions and player availability. Weather conditions at the venue and any late tactical adjustments announced on match day could shift positioning. The settlement window closes immediately after the final whistle, leaving no grace period for delayed official confirmation of the result.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $1.6M of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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