Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Copa do Brasil game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between CR Vasco da Gama and Paysandu SC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CR Vasco da Gama | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| Draw (CR Vasco da Gama vs. Paysandu SC) | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Paysandu SC | 12% YES | 88% NO |
CR Vasco da Gama will face Paysandu SC in a Copa do Brasil fixture on Wednesday, 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (Vasco victory) at 76%, reflecting a substantial favourite status. This probability has formed through active trading across the book's depth, with the spread between bid and ask prices narrowing as the match date approaches.
Vasco da Gama's historical performance in knockout competitions and domestic cup play provides context for the current pricing. The Rio de Janeiro club has competed consistently in Copa do Brasil rounds, though their recent league form and squad stability matter significantly for match-day execution. Paysandu, based in Belém, typically operates as a lower-division or regional competitor, which partially explains the wide probability gap. Historical matchups between clubs of differing competitive tiers in cup competitions often see the higher-ranked side priced at similar or wider margins.
Traders should monitor team news releases, injury confirmations, and any late fixture rescheduling announcements through early May. Squad rotation decisions—particularly whether Vasco fields a full-strength eleven or rotates players—will influence match dynamics. Paysandu's preparation status and any recent form shifts in their domestic competition warrant attention. Weather conditions in Rio or potential pitch issues could emerge as secondary factors. The settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC on 13 May, allowing only match-day developments to shift the current 76% pricing materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/copa-do-brasil. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CR Vasco da Gama vs. Paysandu SC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$146 in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/copa-do-brasil. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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