Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Brazil Serie B game between Operário Ferroviário EC and Clube Náutico Capibaribe, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Operário Ferroviário EC will face Clube Náutico Capibaribe in a Brazil Serie B fixture on 16 May 2026. The market prices a specific exact-score outcome at 11% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting the combined likelihood that both teams produce a particular scoreline within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Exact-score markets in lower-tier Brazilian football typically see fragmented liquidity across numerous possible outcomes, with the most common results (1–0, 1–1, 2–1) commanding higher prices than less frequent scorelines.
Historical data from Serie B matches shows that exact-score predictions carry inherent difficulty given the competitive balance of mid-table clubs and variable pitch conditions across venues. Operário Ferroviário, based in Ponta Grossa, and Capibaribe, from Recife, represent distinct regional footballing traditions with different tactical approaches. The 11% price suggests traders view this particular outcome as moderately unlikely relative to the full distribution of possible final scores, though without recent form data or team news, the current order-book pricing reflects consensus rather than directional conviction.
Traders should monitor squad availability and any late-season injuries reported in the week preceding the match, as absences of key players can materially shift expected goal output. Fixture scheduling changes, weather forecasts for either venue, and any league announcements regarding match postponements will alter market conditions before settlement on 16 May at 19:00 UTC. Recent Brazilian football reporting should be consulted for current team standings and momentum indicators.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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