Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Monday, May 25, 2026 between Botafogo FC and Athletic Club.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Botafogo FC | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (Botafogo FC vs. Athletic Club) | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Athletic Club | 46% YES | 55% NO |
Botafogo FC will face Athletic Club in a Brazil Serie B fixture on Monday, 25 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome at 47%, reflecting near-parity between the two sides with a slight lean towards a draw or Athletic victory. This probability has formed across the market's active liquidity pools, where traders are pricing in team form, historical head-to-head records, and venue factors as the settlement window approaches.
Botafogo's recent trajectory in Serie B provides essential context. The Rio club has oscillated between promotion contention and mid-table finishes in recent seasons, whilst Athletic Club—typically based in the north-east—brings variable consistency depending on their divisional standing and squad stability. Historical matchups between these sides show competitive encounters with no dominant pattern, which partly explains why the market has settled near the midpoint rather than pricing a clear favourite.
Key catalysts for traders include team news releases in the week preceding the match, particularly injury confirmations or suspensions that could shift squad balance. Fixture congestion in late May—when many Serie B clubs face fixture pile-ups—may affect player availability and fatigue levels. Weather conditions in Brazil's north-east region during late May can also influence play style. Any official announcements regarding venue changes or scheduling adjustments would move the order book, as would shifts in broader Serie B promotion race dynamics that might affect either team's motivation heading into this fixture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Botafogo FC vs. Athletic Club" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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