Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Sunday, May 31, 2026 between SE Palmeiras and Associação Chapecoense de Futebol.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SE Palmeiras | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Draw (SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol) | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Associação Chapecoense de Futebol | 46% YES | 54% NO |
SE Palmeiras will face Associação Chapecoense de Futebol in a Brazil Série A fixture on 31 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 47% implied probability for a Palmeiras victory, suggesting the market perceives this as a competitive encounter despite Palmeiras' status as one of Brazil's most successful clubs in recent years.
Palmeiras have dominated Brazilian football since 2020, winning multiple Série A titles and establishing themselves as consistent contenders domestically and in continental competitions. Chapecoense, by contrast, operate from a smaller resource base in the south and have historically struggled to maintain consistent top-flight performance. Historical matchups between these sides show Palmeiras winning roughly two-thirds of encounters, though Chapecoense have occasionally secured draws or victories at home. The 47% probability assigned to Palmeiras suggests the market is pricing in either a neutral venue effect, recent form deterioration at Palmeiras, or elevated Chapecoense performance heading into late May.
Traders should monitor team news through May, particularly injury updates for Palmeiras' key personnel and any managerial changes at either club. Fixture congestion matters significantly—both sides' involvement in Copa Libertadores or domestic cup competitions in the weeks preceding 31 May will affect squad rotation decisions and fatigue levels. Recent Série A standings and form sheets from April and May 2026 will be critical indicators of momentum. Settlement occurs immediately after full-time, with the market resolving based on the official match result.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: