Trade: Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Turkey BSL game, scheduled for June 5 at 1:00PM ET: If the Anadolu Efes win, the market will resolve to "Anadolu Efes". If the Fenerbahce win, the market will resolve to "Fenerbahce". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce | 41% YES | 60% NO |
Market context
Anadolu Efes and Fenerbahce will meet in a Turkish Basketball Super League fixture on 5 June at 1:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Efes at 43% implied probability, reflecting a modest underdog position against their Istanbul rivals. Settlement occurs on 12 June at 17:00 UTC, with the result determined by final score including any overtime play.
Historically, these two clubs represent the dominant axis of Turkish basketball, with Fenerbahce holding a slight edge in recent seasons and head-to-head records. Fenerbahce won the 2024 Turkish Cup and has maintained stronger European competition results, which typically correlates with domestic form. Efes, however, remain a two-time EuroLeague champion with sufficient roster depth to compete in any domestic matchup. The 43% probability for Efes suggests the market views Fenerbahce as marginal favourites, consistent with their current league standing and recent momentum.
Traders should monitor team news regarding player availability and injury status in the week preceding the fixture, as both clubs rotate squad depth across domestic and European commitments. Fenerbahce's fixture congestion in the EuroLeague may influence squad rotation decisions. The timing of the game—early June—falls during the tail end of the Turkish season, where playoff positioning and rest management become strategic considerations. Any official postponement announcements would extend the settlement window, whilst outright cancellation without rescheduling would trigger a 50-50 resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Anadolu Efes S.K.Anadolu Efes Spor Kulübü, commonly referred to as Anadolu Efes or simply Efes, is a Turkish professional basketball team based in Istanbul. Founded in 1976, the club was formerly known as Efes Pilsen until 2011. Efes is the 2021–22 Euroleague champion and on the first place of European Club Ranking after the Final Four 2020–21. Efes is also the most successf
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Anadolu FeneriAnadolu Feneri is a historical lighthouse still in use, located at Anadolufeneri on the Asian side of Bosphorus' Black Sea entrance in Istanbul, Turkey. "Anadolu" is the Turkish name for Anatolia and "fener" means lighthouse. It is across from the lighthouse Rumeli Feneri, on the European side of the strait at a distance of 2 nmi. A connecting line between t
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Fire of AnatoliaThe Fire of Anatolia or Anadolu Ateşi is a Turkish dance group consisting of 120 dancers, several choreographers and other technical staff. The group has performed in more than 85 countries from the United States to China and Japan, in front of an audience of approximately 20 million people altogether. Fire of Anatolia holds two Guinness records, one for fas
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.tbl.org.tr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 41% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $244 if YES resolves true — a 144% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 41%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.tbl.org.tr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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