Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming ABA League game, scheduled for May 5 at 12:45PM ET: If the Buducnost win, the market will resolve to "Buducnost". If the U-BT Cluj-Napoca win, the market will resolve to "U-BT Cluj-Napoca". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Buducnost vs. U-BT Cluj-Napoca | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The ABA League matchup between Buducnost and U-BT Cluj-Napoca is scheduled for 5 May at 12:45PM ET, with settlement occurring by 12 May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for one outcome, indicating either extreme confidence in a particular result or minimal liquidity depth at current price levels. This pricing typically emerges when one side commands substantial backing relative to available counter-liquidity, though such extreme probabilities often compress as the event date approaches and additional traders enter the market.
Buducnost, the Montenegrin club, competes in the Adriatic Basketball Association's upper tier and has historically fielded competitive rosters, whilst U-BT Cluj-Napoca represents Romania's professional circuit. The ABA League encompasses regional Balkan and Central European clubs, with fixture outcomes influenced by squad depth, injury status, and travel logistics across the region. Historical precedent suggests that when domestic league clubs face cross-border opponents in continental competitions, home-court advantage and squad familiarity often prove decisive factors in determining final margins.
Traders should monitor official ABA League communications regarding squad availability and any last-minute roster changes prior to tip-off. Postponement risk exists given the multi-country scheduling dependencies typical of regional European basketball fixtures. The settlement window extends to 12 May, providing a buffer beyond the scheduled date should rescheduling occur. Current pricing warrants scrutiny given its extremity; material shifts in implied probability would likely follow any official announcements concerning player availability or fixture confirmation from league authorities.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.aba-liga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Buducnost vs. U-BT Cluj-Napoca" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$823 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.aba-liga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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