Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the doubles tennis match between Arends/Pel and Martinez/Miralles in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arends/Pel' if the team of Arends/Pel advances against Martinez/Miralles. This market will resolve to 'Martinez/Miralles' if the team of Martinez/Miralles advances against Arends/Pel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Martinez/Miralles | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
A doubles tennis match between Arends/Pel and Martinez/Miralles is scheduled for the Valencia tournament on 14 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 50-50 split on Polymarket's order book, indicating genuine uncertainty about which pairing advances. Settlement occurs on 21 May, allowing a seven-day window for match completion; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold resolves the market to an even split.
Comparable ATP doubles pairings at similar-tier tournaments show that unseeded or lower-ranked combinations often trade near parity when head-to-head records are sparse or recent form data is limited. The 50% probability here likely reflects the absence of clear recent matchup history or significant ranking disparity between these teams. Traders should note that Valencia's hard court surface and spring timing can favour certain playing styles—particularly aggressive net play and serve-and-volley tactics—which may advantage one pairing's strengths over the other once draw details and recent tournament results become available.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of the draw and any late withdrawals or substitutions in the days before 14 May. Recent ATP tour schedules show doubles draws typically finalised 48 hours before play. Injury updates to any of the four players, or shifts in their competing tournament schedules, could shift the probability meaningfully. Current order book depth will reveal whether institutional traders are building positions ahead of draw publication or waiting for additional information before committing capital.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Martinez/Miralles" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $120 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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