Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Primera División Argentina game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between CA Rosario Central and CA Independiente.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CA Rosario Central | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (CA Rosario Central vs. CA Independiente) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| CA Independiente | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Rosario Central will host Independiente in a Primera División Argentina fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (Rosario Central victory) at 39%, reflecting modest backing for the home side despite their hosting advantage. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity across the market's liquidity pools, where traders are pricing in form, squad composition, and historical matchup patterns as of today.
Rosario Central and Independiente have a long competitive history in Argentine football, with neither club holding overwhelming dominance in recent seasons. Rosario Central's home record in the Superliga typically carries modest advantage—roughly 45–50% win rates at the Estadio Gigante de Arroyito—whilst Independiente, despite periods of inconsistency, maintains a travel record that keeps them competitive away from home. The 39% probability suggests traders view this as a relatively balanced encounter with slight lean toward a draw or Independiente result, consistent with how these clubs have performed in comparable fixtures over the past two seasons.
Key variables affecting settlement include team news closer to match day, particularly injury status of key players and any managerial changes announced between now and 10 May. Fixture congestion in the Argentine calendar, domestic cup commitments, and Copa Libertadores involvement (if applicable) will shape squad rotation decisions. Traders should monitor official club announcements and local Argentine sports press for squad confirmations and tactical adjustments in the final week before kick-off, as these often shift market pricing materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.afa.com.ar/es/liga-profesional-de-futbol. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CA Rosario Central vs. CA Independiente" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$93K in lifetime turnover and $107K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $92K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.afa.com.ar/es/liga-profesional-de-futbol. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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