Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club wins the 2025-2026 Euroleague season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to win the 2025-2026 Euroleague per the rules of the Euroleague (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anadolu Efes | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| AS Monaco | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Barcelona | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bayern Munich | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Baskonia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fenerbahçe Beko | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| LDLC ASVEL | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2025-2026 Euroleague season will culminate in a championship final scheduled for late May 2026, with the winner determined through a regular season followed by knockout playoffs. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either a newly listed market with minimal liquidity or a club that has been formally eliminated from competition. Euroleague markets typically see probability shifts tied to roster announcements, injury disclosures, and early-season performance data, with the order book depth indicating how readily traders can enter or exit positions at quoted prices.
Historical Euroleague champions have concentrated among a small set of clubs: Real Madrid, CSKA Moscow, Olympiacos, and FC Barcelona have dominated the past fifteen seasons, collectively winning thirteen titles since 2010. Teams outside this elite tier have occasionally reached finals but rarely sustained championship-level performance across multiple seasons. The 0% probability suggests either a club with documented structural disadvantages heading into 2025-2026 or one that has already been mathematically eliminated through competition rules. Traders should verify the specific club listed and confirm its current competitive status before interpreting the probability as a trading signal.
Key catalysts include the official Euroleague fixture schedule release, confirmation of player transfers during the summer window, and any regulatory changes affecting salary caps or roster composition. Early-season results from October 2025 onwards will substantially shift probabilities as team form becomes observable. Injury announcements to star players and mid-season trades can trigger sharp repricing across related markets.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 Euroleague: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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