Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s July monetary policy meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its July 16, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their July 16, 2026 meeting with relevant…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Decrease | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Increase | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| No Change | 66% YES | 34% NO |
The Bank of Korea will convene its monetary policy committee on 16 July 2026 to decide whether to adjust its base rate. This market resolves YES only if the BoK announces a rate change at that specific meeting; a decision to hold rates steady resolves NO. The current 1% implied probability reflects the order book's assessment that a July move is highly unlikely, with traders pricing in minimal expectation of policy shift at this particular meeting.
The BoK's recent pattern shows measured adjustment cycles rather than frequent mid-cycle moves. Between 2022 and 2024, the central bank shifted rates in deliberate steps across multiple meetings, typically signalling intentions well in advance. The July 2026 meeting falls within the BoK's regular eight-week meeting schedule, and historical precedent suggests major policy decisions cluster around specific economic data releases or forward guidance cycles rather than appearing unexpectedly. The 1% probability reflects this institutional pattern: traders view July as unlikely to break from established communication practices.
Catalysts shaping the probability include June inflation and employment data releases, which typically inform the BoK's July decision framework. The won's exchange rate movements against the dollar and regional growth indicators will signal whether economic conditions warrant immediate action. Any unexpected financial stability concerns or external shocks in early July could shift the calculus, though the BoK's preference for gradualism and pre-announced policy paths means surprise moves remain rare. Traders should monitor the BoK's June communications and any statements from Governor Rhee Chang-yong regarding the July meeting's scope.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bank of Korea decision in July?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for south korea contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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