Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Solana's price according to Chainlink's SOL/USD data stream finishes higher or flat on 1 May 2026 between 5:30PM and 5:35PM ET compared to its opening level at 5:30PM. The five-minute window captures intraday volatility during US late-afternoon trading hours, when institutional and retail activity typically remains elevated before the close.
The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in an upward or flat close, though this concentration warrants scrutiny given the compressed timeframe. Short-duration price movements of this specificity historically show wide variance; five-minute candles routinely close within 0.5–2% of opening levels across crypto markets, yet directional certainty at this probability level suggests either substantial order book depth supporting the YES side or thin liquidity creating distorted pricing. Comparable ultra-short-window markets on Polymarket have occasionally experienced sharp repricing when actual settlement data arrives, particularly when Chainlink feeds experience latency or when spot prices diverge across venues.
Traders should monitor Solana network health and any scheduled maintenance windows affecting validator performance on 1 May, as these can trigger brief price movements. Broader macro catalysts—Federal Reserve communications, Bitcoin volatility, or major ecosystem announcements—may drive directional pressure during the settlement window. The reliance on Chainlink's specific data stream rather than spot market aggregates means traders must verify feed status and any potential delays or anomalies in the SOL/USD pricing source itself, as these directly determine settlement rather than broader market consensus.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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