Trade: UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Red Cards
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player who records the most red cards through all main tournament rounds of the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League competition. For the purpose of this market, both direct red cards, or red cards that result from the accumulation of two yellow cards in the same match will be considered in the final count. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA Europa Conference League rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $45
- Total Volume
- $7K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $45
Market outcomes
| Afimico Pululu | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Igor Savić | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mohamed Toure | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Borna Sosa | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Alexandre Penetra | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jesús Imaz | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| player A | — | |
| player C | — | |
Market context
The 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League will run from August 2025 through May 2026, with participating clubs competing across qualifying rounds and group stages before knockout rounds determine a champion. This market tracks which individual player accumulates the most red cards across the entire tournament, counting both direct dismissals and those resulting from two yellow card accumulations in a single match. Settlement occurs at the conclusion of the final on 28 May 2026.
Historical precedent suggests red card leaders in European competitions typically accumulate between three and six dismissals across a full season. The 2024-25 Conference League season saw relatively disciplined play, with no single player reaching more than two red cards through the group stage. Defensive midfielders and centre-backs historically feature prominently in these tallies given their positional exposure to fouls, though full-backs and aggressive forwards occasionally lead. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the difficulty in predicting individual disciplinary outcomes across a dispersed field of hundreds of eligible players, with no clear favourite emerging from pre-season assessments.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and managerial changes through August 2025, as tactical approaches and personnel shifts directly influence disciplinary patterns. Fixture scheduling—particularly which teams face each other and in what sequence—affects cumulative card exposure. Recent reporting from UEFA indicates no significant rule changes for the 2025-26 season, meaning historical disciplinary standards should apply consistently. Early group stage matches in September 2025 will provide initial data on which players are receiving cards at elevated rates.
Wikipedia Context
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UEFA Conference LeagueThe UEFA Conference League (UECL), usually known simply as the Conference League, is an annual association football competition organised since 2021 by the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) for eligible European football clubs. It is the third-tier competition of European club football, ranking below the second-tier UEFA Europa League, and the f
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UEFA Conference League clubs performance comparison
The comparison of the performances of all of the clubs that participated in the UEFA Conference League is below. The qualification rounds are not taken into account.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Red Cards" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$7K in lifetime turnover and $45 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "UEFA Europa Conference League: Most Red Cards"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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