Trade: Serie B: Team promoted to Serie A
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team achieves promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026–27 season at the conclusion of the 2025-2026 league season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in Serie A for the 2026–27 season through their final standing in the Serie B, via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by Serie A and Serie B. If the 2025-2026 Serie B season is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $54K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $8K
Market outcomes
| Bari | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Catanzaro | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Empoli | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Juve Stabia | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Modena | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Padova | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Pescara | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sampdoria | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The 2025–26 Serie B season will determine which teams earn promotion to Italy's top flight for the 2026–27 campaign. Typically, the top two finishers secure automatic promotion, whilst teams finishing third through eighth compete in playoff rounds for the third promotion spot. The settlement window closes on 31 May 2026, allowing time for the regular season and playoff structure to conclude. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either a specific team with negligible historical promotion prospects or a market with insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing; the current bid-ask spread likely shows minimal trading activity, with no counterparty willing to price upside risk.
Serie B promotion outcomes depend heavily on squad composition, managerial stability, and financial resources. Historical precedent shows that clubs with consistent investment and experienced coaching staff—such as Parma, Brescia, and Benevento—have cycled between Serie A and B multiple times. Teams relegated from Serie A typically command stronger odds due to superior infrastructure and player retention. The 2024–25 season saw Parma and Como secure promotion; comparable clubs in the current cycle will face similar competitive dynamics.
Traders should monitor January transfer windows, managerial changes, and injury developments affecting key players through spring 2026. Official Serie B standings updates and playoff bracket confirmations will provide concrete data points. Any administrative decisions by Lega Serie B regarding league structure or promotion places could alter settlement conditions materially.
Wikipedia Context
-
Serie A Team of the Year
The AIC Serie A Team of the Year is an annual award given to a set of eleven footballers in the top tier of Italian football, the Serie A, who are considered to have performed the best during the previous calendar season. It is awarded within the Gran Galà del Calcio event.
-
Series (mathematics)
In mathematics, a series is, roughly speaking, an addition of infinitely many terms, one after the other. The study of series is a major part of calculus and its generalization, mathematical analysis. Series are used in most areas of mathematics, even for studying finite structures in combinatorics through generating functions. The mathematical properties of
-
Serik Temirzhanov
Serik Temirzhanov is a Kazakh boxer. He competed in the men's featherweight event at the 2020 Summer Olympics held in Tokyo, Japan. He lost to Duke Ragan of America in the Second round. He also competed at the 2021 World Championships, where he won a medal.
-
Verónica CastroVerónica Judith Sáinz Castro is a Mexican actress and television personality. She began her career in the late 1960s with minor film and television roles before rising to prominence as the star of the telenovela Los ricos también lloran (1979), a success that established her as one of the genre's leading figures. She later followed with El derecho de nacer (
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Serie B: Team promoted to Serie A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$54K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Serie B: Team promoted to Serie A"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: