Trade: World Cup: Silver Ball Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the player who is awarded the Silver Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $49K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Kylian Mbappé | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Lamine Yamal | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Harry Kane | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Michael Olise | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Lionel Messi | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Vinícius Jr. | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Market context
The Silver Ball award recognises the second-best individual performer at the FIFA World Cup, determined by a technical study group that evaluates player contributions across the tournament. The 2026 World Cup will be hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico from June to July, with the final scheduled for 19 July 2026. The award typically goes to an outfield player who has performed consistently throughout the competition, though goalkeepers have occasionally featured in consideration.
Historical precedent suggests the Silver Ball tends to favour attacking midfielders and forwards who accumulate both goals and assists across multiple matches. At the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Lionel Messi won the Golden Ball whilst Kylian Mbappé claimed the Silver Ball after scoring eight goals. The 2018 Russia tournament saw Eden Hazard awarded the Silver Ball, and in 2014 Brazil's David Luiz received it. These outcomes indicate the award frequently aligns with tournament-leading scorers or players from deep tournament runs, though voting can reward consistency over peak performance.
Current Polymarket order book pricing reflects 43 per cent implied probability for a Silver Ball winner being declared by the settlement deadline of 20 July 2026. Key catalysts include squad announcements from major nations (expected late 2025 and early 2026), injury developments affecting key players, and tournament progression itself. The expanded 48-team format introduces uncertainty regarding which nations advance furthest and which players accumulate sufficient visibility with the voting panel. No single player has yet emerged as consensus favourite, leaving the market relatively dispersed across multiple candidates.
Wikipedia Context
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World cupA world cup is a global sporting competition in which the participant entities – usually international teams or individuals representing their countries – compete for the title of world champion. The event most associated with the name is the FIFA World Cup for association football, which dates back to 1930. Since then there have been a number of sporting ev
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2016 World Cup of Hockey
The 2016 World Cup of Hockey was an international ice hockey tournament. It was the third installment of the National Hockey League (NHL)-sanctioned competition, 12 years after the second World Cup of Hockey in 2004. It was held from September 17 to September 29 at Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario. Canada won the championship, defeating Team Europe in t
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1996 World Cup of Hockey
The first World Cup of Hockey (WCH), or the 1996 World Cup of Hockey, was the inaugural edition of the event, replacing the Canada Cup as one of the world championships of ice hockey.
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2028 World Cup of Hockey
The 2028 World Cup of Hockey will be the fourth installment of the World Cup of Hockey by the National Hockey League. It will be played in February 2028 with 17 games in three host cities. The competition will include eight teams from individual countries in North America and Europe.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "World Cup: Silver Ball Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $49K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for silver ball contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "World Cup: Silver Ball Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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