Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Jersey. If no 2026 New Jersey Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Jersey Republican party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate M | — | |
| Candidate N | — | |
| Justin Murphy | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Richard Tabor | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Natalie Rivera | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Alex Zdan | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Vinnie Brand | 1% YES | 100% NO |
New Jersey's Republican Senate primary in 2026 will determine the party's nominee to challenge the incumbent Democratic senator. The Garden State has trended Democratic in recent cycles, making the Republican primary outcome significant for understanding the party's competitive positioning in a lean-blue state. With no live pricing yet on Polymarket's order book, the implied probability remains unformed, presenting an early opportunity for traders to establish positions before meaningful candidate announcements and fundraising data crystallise market sentiment.
Historical precedent suggests New Jersey Republican primaries tend toward establishment-aligned candidates, though recent cycles have seen increased Tea Party and populist influence within the state party. The 2020 Republican Senate primary saw limited competitive tension, but demographic shifts and national polarisation may alter dynamics in 2026. Comparable states with similar political leanings—Connecticut, Rhode Island—have produced varied outcomes depending on candidate quality and national momentum, indicating substantial uncertainty remains.
Key catalysts include formal candidate declarations, expected throughout 2025 and into early 2026, alongside Federal Election Commission filings revealing fundraising capacity. The New Jersey Republican State Committee's endorsement process, typically occurring in spring 2026, will signal establishment preference. National Republican Senate Committee involvement and spending decisions will influence momentum. Traders should monitor whether prominent New Jersey Republicans enter the race and track polling data as the primary approaches, with the settlement window closing 2 June 2026 immediately following the primary election.
Chairman of the New Jersey Republican State Committee:1880–1891: Garret Augustus Hobart 1891–1892: John Kean 1892–1904: Franklin Murphy 1904–1907: Frank Obadiah Briggs 1907–1910: Franklin Murphy 1910–1913: Frank Obadiah Briggs 1913–1919: Newton Albert Kendall Bugbee 1919–1927: Edward C. Stokes 1927–1934: Elias Bertram Mott 1934–1935: E. Donald Sterner 1935–1
The New Jersey Republican Party (NJGOP) is the affiliate of the United States Republican Party in New Jersey. It was founded in 1880 and is currently led by Christine Hanlon.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "New Jersey Republican Senate Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$414K in lifetime turnover and $48K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for senate primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $68 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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