Trade: 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Market context

The market concerns whether April 2026 will rank among the three warmest Aprils in the instrumental temperature record when measured by NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Resolution depends on monthly data released by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, with settlement occurring after the May 2026 data publication window closes. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for this outcome, suggesting traders assess it as effectively impossible within the timeframe.

April temperatures have trended warmer over recent decades, yet achieving top-three status remains rare. The three warmest Aprils on record occurred in 2016, 2024, and 2023, with 2024 notably setting the April record at +1.67°C above the 20th-century baseline. For April 2026 to qualify, it would need to match or exceed approximately +1.50°C anomaly. The 0% implied probability reflects scepticism that natural variability and seasonal patterns will produce such an extreme outcome, particularly given that April typically shows less warming intensity than surrounding months in strong El Niño or post-El Niño years.

Traders should monitor oceanic temperature patterns through early 2026, particularly sea surface conditions in the Pacific and Atlantic. The strength of any residual El Niño influence or emergence of La Niña conditions will substantially affect April's trajectory. NASA releases preliminary monthly data around mid-month, with final figures published several weeks later. The settlement window extends to 10 May 2026, allowing time for data confirmation before resolution.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$97K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $741 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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