Rut

Trade: Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 7?

0% YES 100% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Thursday, May 7, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Thursday, May 7, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
—
Total Volume
$744
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
$603
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Market outcomes

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 7? 0% YES100% NO

Market context

The Russell 2000 will either close higher or lower on Thursday, 7 May 2026 relative to its previous trading day's close. This single-day directional bet on the small-cap benchmark reflects near-term market sentiment and intraday volatility. The 0% implied probability currently displayed on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in either an extremely skewed expectation or thin liquidity in the market's early formation. Such extreme probabilities often indicate sparse order flow rather than genuine consensus; as traders add depth to both sides, the probability typically gravitates towards 50% for unbiased directional bets absent concrete catalysts.

Historical precedent shows that single-day Russell 2000 moves depend heavily on macroeconomic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, and earnings announcements. Small-cap stocks exhibit greater sensitivity to interest rate expectations and credit conditions than large-cap indices. In May 2026, traders should monitor any scheduled Federal Reserve speakers, labour market data, or inflation reports that could shift risk sentiment. Corporate earnings season typically concludes by early May, though late reporters may still influence sentiment. Geopolitical developments or unexpected economic data can drive sharp single-day reversals, particularly in the Russell 2000, which historically exhibits higher daily volatility than the S&P 500.

The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 7 May, capturing the official close. Traders entering this market should assess whether current order book depth reflects genuine conviction or merely sparse participation in an emerging market.

Wikipedia Context

  • Russell 2000 Index
    Russell 2000 Index

    The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. It was started by the Frank Russell Company in 1984. The index is maintained by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).

  • Russell 1000 Index

    The Russell 1000 Index is a U.S. stock market index that tracks the largest 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent about 93% of the total market capitalization of that index. The index is market cap weighted, meaning larger companies have a greater influence on the index than smaller companies.

  • Russell 3000 Index

    The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the 3,000 largest publicly held companies incorporated in the United States as measured by total market capitalization, and represents approximately 98% of the American public equity market. The i

  • Russell 2500 Index

    The Russell 2500 Index measures the performance of the 2,500 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, with a weighted average market capitalization of approximately $4.3 billion, median capitalization of $1.2 billion and market capitalization of the largest company of $18.7 billion.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$744 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rut contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 7?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 7?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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