Trade: Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 11?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, May 11, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, May 11, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
- $18K
- 24h Volume
- $18K
- Open Interest
- $17K
Market outcomes
| Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 11? | 94% YES | 6% NO |
Market context
The Russell 2000 will trade on Monday, 11 May 2026, and this market settles on whether its closing price exceeds the prior trading day's close. The 91% implied probability reflects a strong crowd expectation of an up day, currently priced in Polymarket's order book with tight spreads on the affirmative side. Single-day directional bets on small-cap indices carry inherent volatility; the Russell 2000 historically closes higher roughly 52–53% of trading days absent major shocks, meaning the current pricing embeds meaningful conviction about conditions on that specific date.
Historical context suggests that small-cap indices exhibit greater sensitivity to domestic economic data and sentiment shifts than large-cap benchmarks. The Russell 2000's average daily move ranges from 0.5% to 1.5% depending on market regime. When crowd probabilities for single-day directional moves exceed 85%, they typically reflect either identifiable catalysts or sustained momentum positioning rather than baseline statistical expectations. The order book depth and bid-ask spreads on Polymarket will reveal whether this probability is anchored to specific news or broader positioning.
Traders should monitor economic releases scheduled near the settlement window, particularly any labour market data or Federal Reserve communications that could shift risk appetite. Earnings season timing and sector rotation into or out of small-cap growth stocks will also influence positioning. The Friday prior (9 May) close will establish the comparison baseline; any late-week volatility or geopolitical developments could materially alter the probability by market open on Monday.
Wikipedia Context
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Russell 2000 IndexThe Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap U.S. stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. It was started by the Frank Russell Company in 1984. The index is maintained by FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG).
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Russell 1000 Index
The Russell 1000 Index is a U.S. stock market index that tracks the largest 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent about 93% of the total market capitalization of that index. The index is market cap weighted, meaning larger companies have a greater influence on the index than smaller companies.
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Russell 3000 Index
The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S. stock market. It measures the performance of the 3,000 largest publicly held companies incorporated in the United States as measured by total market capitalization, and represents approximately 98% of the American public equity market. The i
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Russell 2500 Index
The Russell 2500 Index measures the performance of the 2,500 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, with a weighted average market capitalization of approximately $4.3 billion, median capitalization of $1.2 billion and market capitalization of the largest company of $18.7 billion.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 94% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $106 if YES resolves true — a 6% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$18K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rut contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $18K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 11?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 94%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on May 11?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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