Trade: MLB: Player to Record Most Intentional Walks?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the most intentional walks. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with more walks during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher on base percentage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the 2026 MLB season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available MLB statistics for completed games.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $919
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $120
- Open Interest
- $81
Market outcomes
| Aaron Judge | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Nick Kurtz | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| James Wood | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Juan Soto | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Munetaka Murakami | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| Player A | — | |
| Player C | — | |
Market context
The 2026 MLB regular season will determine which player accumulates the most intentional walks over the course of the campaign. Intentional walks remain a strategic tool deployed primarily against elite hitters in high-leverage situations, making this outcome dependent on both individual performance and managerial decision-making across all 30 teams. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 21% implied probability, suggesting the market views this outcome as moderately unlikely relative to alternative resolutions.
Historically, intentional walk leaders have clustered around franchise cornerstones and prolific sluggers. Barry Bonds holds the single-season record with 120 intentional walks in 2004, though modern baseball has seen declining intentional walk rates as teams favour alternative strategic approaches. Recent seasons have typically seen leaders accumulate between 20 and 35 intentional walks annually. The 21% probability currently priced suggests traders anticipate a fragmented distribution of intentional walks across multiple elite hitters rather than one player commanding a substantial lead—a reasonable assessment given the strategic diversification of modern pitching management.
Traders should monitor roster construction announcements and trade deadlines throughout the 2026 season, as mid-season acquisitions of marquee hitters could shift intentional walk patterns. Managerial philosophies regarding pitch selection and avoidance strategies will prove material; teams employing analytics-driven approaches may deploy intentional walks differently than traditional franchises. Injury status of elite hitters will directly influence their plate appearance volume and exposure to intentional walk situations, making health updates from spring training onwards critical data points for position refinement.
Wikipedia Context
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Major League BaseballMajor League Baseball (MLB) is a professional baseball league in North America composed of 30 teams, divided equally between the National League (NL) and the American League (AL), with 29 in the United States and 1 in Canada. MLB is one of the major professional sports leagues in the United States and Canada and is considered the premier professional basebal
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MLB on FoxMajor League Baseball on Fox is an American presentation of Major League Baseball (MLB) games produced by Fox Sports, the sports division of the Fox Broadcasting Company (Fox), since June 1, 1996. Fox has aired the World Series in 1996, 1998, and every edition since 2000, and the All-Star Game in 1997, 1999, and every year since 2001. It has also aired the N
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Major League Baseball Player of the Week AwardIn Major League Baseball (MLB), the Player of the Week Award is given weekly during the regular season. It is given to two outstanding players, one each in the National League (NL) and American League (AL). The NL first awarded the honor during the 1973 season, and the AL began in 1974. Players at all positions are eligible for the award.
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Major League Baseball Players AssociationThe Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) is the labor union representing all current Major League Baseball (MLB) and Minor League Baseball (MiLB) players. All players, managers, coaches, and athletic trainers who hold or have held a signed contract with a Major League club are eligible for membership in the Association. The MLBPA has three major
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "MLB: Player to Record Most Intentional Walks?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $919 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rewards 50 4pt5 20 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $120 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "MLB: Player to Record Most Intentional Walks?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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