Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <2 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| 3 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| 2 | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| 4+ | 19% YES | 82% NO |
This market concerns the number of calendar days in June 2026 during which OpenAI's ChatGPT service experiences any incident classified as a partial or full outage. The resolution hinges on OpenAI's official incident classifications at the time of closure, considering only those incidents where ChatGPT is explicitly listed as an affected component. The current order book implies a 19% probability of at least one outage day occurring during the month.
ChatGPT has experienced notable service disruptions in the past, though full-day outages remain relatively infrequent. In 2023 and 2024, OpenAI reported sporadic incidents ranging from brief API degradation to several-hour service interruptions, typically lasting under twelve hours when they occurred. The historical baseline suggests outages cluster around periods of peak usage or infrastructure maintenance, with most months seeing zero or one incident day. Given OpenAI's scaling of infrastructure and redundancy improvements since 2023, the 19% implied probability reflects trader expectations that June 2026 will likely see stable service.
Traders should monitor OpenAI's infrastructure announcements, scheduled maintenance windows, and any public communications regarding system upgrades in the months preceding June 2026. Broader cloud infrastructure incidents affecting major providers could cascade to ChatGPT's backend systems. Additionally, significant traffic spikes from new feature releases or promotional campaigns could stress systems and trigger incidents. OpenAI's status page and incident history provide the definitive record for settlement purposes, making real-time monitoring of their official classifications essential for position management.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in June 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rewards 20 4pt5 50 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $482 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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