Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <80 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 100+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 95–100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 85–90 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 80–85 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| 90–95 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Week 18 of 2026 falls in early May, near the tail end of the Northern Hemisphere influenza season. The market resolves based on the CDC's FluSurv-NET hospitalisation rate per 100,000 population for that specific week. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to a YES resolution, indicating traders expect the hospitalisation rate to remain below the lowest bracket threshold. This pricing reflects typical seasonal patterns: by May, influenza activity in the United States has historically declined substantially from winter peaks, with hospitalisation rates often dropping to single digits per 100,000.
Historical data provides context for interpreting the current 0% implied probability. During the 2023–24 season, hospitalisation rates in late April and early May ranged between 0.5 and 2 per 100,000. The 2022–23 season showed similar patterns, with spring weeks recording minimal activity. Even during moderately severe seasons, May hospitalisation rates have rarely exceeded 5 per 100,000. The crowd's pricing suggests confidence that Week 18 will follow this established seasonal trajectory.
Traders should monitor CDC FluSurv-NET releases scheduled weekly throughout winter and spring 2026, with particular attention to trends in March and April that could signal whether Week 18 activity deviates from historical norms. Any emergence of novel variants or unexpected winter-to-spring persistence could alter expectations, though such occurrences remain uncommon. The resolution deadline of 15 May 2026 allows ten days following the final FluView report for data publication.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 18, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rewards 20 4pt5 50 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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