Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market captures a five-minute window for Ethereum's price movement on 11 May 2026, settling against Chainlink's ETH/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The resolution hinges on whether the closing price at 7:00AM ET meets or exceeds the opening price at 6:55AM ET—a narrow timeframe that isolates intraday volatility during early US trading hours.
Five-minute price movements in Ethereum typically reflect either algorithmic rebalancing, overnight news absorption from Asian markets, or positioning ahead of the US market open. Historical precedent suggests that at 50% implied probability, traders are pricing genuine uncertainty rather than directional conviction. Comparable five-minute windows show roughly even splits between up and down outcomes, with outcomes dependent more on order flow imbalances than fundamental shifts. The current crowd probability on Polymarket's order book reflects balanced liquidity, indicating neither side commands significant conviction at present pricing.
Traders monitoring this window should note the Chainlink data feed's reliance on multiple price sources; any flash crash or temporary exchange outage could create divergence between spot markets and the settlement source. US economic data releases scheduled for early morning trading—particularly employment figures or inflation prints—occasionally trigger volatility spikes that propagate through crypto markets within minutes. Additionally, any overnight developments in major markets (Federal Reserve communications, geopolitical events) could shift positioning before the 6:55AM timestamp, though the five-minute resolution window itself remains too brief for most fundamental repricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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