Trade: Sentient FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Opened 19 November 2025 · Settles 1 January 2027 · 95 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Sentient's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Sentient doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $2.4M
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $0

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Market outcomes

$200M	100% YES	0% NO
$600M	100% YES	0% NO
$1B	0% YES	100% NO
$400M	100% YES	0% NO
$800M	100% YES	0% NO
$2B	0% YES	100% NO
$1.5B	0% YES	100% NO

Market context

Sentient Technologies is preparing to launch a tradeable token, with the market assessing whether its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of that launch becoming publicly transferable. The resolution hinges on the token price multiplied by total supply, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. The settlement window closes at the end of 2026, establishing a hard deadline for both the token launch and the valuation measurement.

The 100% implied probability reflects the current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing near-certainty that the FDV threshold will be breached. Historical precedent from recent token launches—including those from established technology firms—shows that initial valuations frequently exceed pre-launch expectations due to concentrated early demand and limited initial liquidity. However, this assumes successful execution of the launch itself; any delays, regulatory obstacles, or technical complications could materially alter outcomes.

Key catalysts include official announcements from Sentient regarding launch timing, token supply figures, and distribution mechanics. Recent statements from the company should clarify whether launch is imminent or faces dependencies. Traders should monitor regulatory developments affecting token offerings, as well as broader cryptocurrency market conditions in late 2026, which will influence both the token's price discovery and the liquidity available for establishing the resolution price. The specific FDV threshold named in the title will determine whether current market positioning remains rational or requires repricing.

Wikipedia Context

Sentient (video game)
Sentient is a 1997 first-person adventure game developed and published by Psygnosis for the PlayStation, DOS, and Windows.
Sentient Vision Systems
Sentient Vision Systems is an Australian company headquartered in Port Melbourne, that produces automated object detection services for video from aircraft and surface sensors used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), search and rescue, and law enforcement. Sentient's products use computer vision software to detect and track objects of in
Sattvic diet
A sattvic diet is a type of plant-based diet within Ayurveda where food is divided into three yogic qualities (guna) known as sattva. In this system of dietary classification, foods that decrease the energy of the body are considered tamasic, while those that increase the energy of the body are considered rajasic.
George Dvorsky
George P. Dvorsky is a Canadian bioethicist, transhumanist and futurist. He is a contributing editor at io9 and producer of the Sentient Developments blog and podcast. He was chair of the board for the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies (IEET) and is the founder and chair of the IEET's Rights of Non-Human Persons Program, a group that is working

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Sentient FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$2.4M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Sentient FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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