Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if total commitments for the Bitway raise on Kaito exceeds the number specified in the title before the raise closes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is the official raise page available at https://kaito.ai/capital-launchpad/99cde47ae13b4374a523?projectName=Bitway If the final commitment amount cannot be verified by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if relevant information becomes permanently unavailable within the market timeframe, this market will resolve to “No.”
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| >$500K | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| >$1M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| >$2M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >$3M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >$5M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >$7M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >$10M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Bitway is conducting a capital raise through Kaito's launchpad platform, with this market tracking whether total commitments will exceed a specified threshold before the raise concludes. The resolution hinges on verifiable data from the official raise page, with a hard deadline of 31 December 2026 for confirmation. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either exceptionally strong early signals or minimal trading volume establishing price discovery; with settlement nearly two years away, this probability warrants scrutiny against actual commitment trajectories.
Comparable blockchain and Web3 token raises show highly variable outcomes. Successful launchpad campaigns typically achieve their targets within the first 48 to 72 hours, whilst others extend campaigns or fall short despite initial momentum. The Kaito platform has hosted multiple raises since 2023, with completion rates varying based on project credibility, token economics clarity, and broader market conditions. Historical precedent suggests that raises achieving their targets early tend to maintain strong commitment levels, whilst those requiring extended timelines face greater uncertainty from market volatility and shifting investor appetite.
Key catalysts include formal announcement of raise terms, any updates to Bitway's tokenomics or use-case documentation, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions affecting investor risk appetite. Traders should monitor Kaito's official communications and the raise page directly for commitment figures, as these represent the only verifiable resolution source. Regulatory developments affecting token sales, particularly in jurisdictions where Bitway targets investors, could materially impact participation levels. The extended settlement window creates exposure to unforeseen project developments or platform changes that might affect data availability before the December 2026 deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitway public sale total commitments?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$638K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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