Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to how much "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 29 - May 31) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Entertainment and pop-culture markets price events that traditional bookmakers won't touch — award winners, viral moments, cultural milestones. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $44K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 4-5m | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >7m | 91% YES | 9% NO |
| <4m | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5-6m | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 6-7m | 9% YES | 91% NO |
The Breadwinner, an animated feature from Cartoon Saloon, opens domestically on 29-31 May 2026. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across Polymarket's order book, indicating no active traders have positioned for any specific opening weekend gross bracket. This reflects either genuine uncertainty about the film's commercial prospects or minimal liquidity at present price levels.
Cartoon Saloon's previous theatrical releases provide limited domestic benchmarks. The Secret of Kells (2009) earned approximately $0.6m domestically across its entire run, whilst Wolfwalkers (2020) grossed $3.3m domestically despite Apple TV+ distribution complications. Both films performed substantially better internationally than domestically. The studio's catalogue suggests modest domestic opening weekends for animated features targeting family and art-house audiences, though theatrical landscape conditions have shifted considerably since these releases.
Key variables for traders include the film's marketing spend and release strategy, which remain unconfirmed. Polymarket's settlement mechanism uses The Numbers' finalised figures rather than studio estimates, meaning opening weekend data typically becomes available by early June. The May 29-31 window places the film in late spring competition; traders should monitor whether major studios counter-programme with tentpole releases or whether the field remains relatively clear. Any significant press coverage, festival recognition, or distribution partnership announcements between now and late May could materially shift market expectations and liquidity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.the-numbers.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 1 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.the-numbers.com/), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Pop-culture and entertainment markets settle from press releases or official announcements; if the underlying event reschedules, PolyGram extends the resolution date accordingly and re-opens trading until the new date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For ""The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office", pop-culture markets are usually shallower than sports or politics — a $500 trade can move the line 1-2¢, so larger orders benefit from a limit ladder.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($44K of resting liquidity), a $200 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading ""The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$300K in lifetime turnover and $44K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $147K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For ""The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office", the considerations above apply directly — Entertainment markets often have thinner books than sports or crypto contracts — a single $1k order can move the line several cents, so position-sizing discipline matters more here than in deeper markets.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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