Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <16.5m | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 17-17.5m | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| 17.5-18m | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| >18.5m | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| Other | — | |
| 18-18.5m | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| 16.5-17m | 28% YES | 73% NO |
The market concerns total TSA passenger throughput across all US checkpoints during the week of 11–17 May 2026. This seven-day window captures mid-spring travel patterns, typically characterised by leisure and business travel ahead of the Memorial Day weekend (which falls on 25 May that year). TSA publishes daily checkpoint throughput figures, which are summed across the settlement period to determine the outcome.
Historical TSA data shows weekly passenger volumes in May range between 8 and 11 million, depending on holiday proximity and economic conditions. The week in question sits before the major Memorial Day surge, suggesting baseline rather than peak travel. Comparable weeks in May 2024 and 2025 recorded approximately 9–10 million passengers. The current 5% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in a specific bracket outcome as unlikely, with the crowd's central expectation concentrated elsewhere across the available resolution brackets.
Traders should monitor fuel prices, airline scheduling announcements, and macroeconomic data through April and early May, as these influence booking patterns. Weather disruptions in major hubs could materially affect checkpoint throughput. The TSA publishes figures daily on its website, providing real-time visibility as the settlement window approaches. Any significant labour actions, security protocol changes, or infrastructure issues at major airports would represent material catalysts affecting the final tally.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Number of TSA passengers May 11 - May 17?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$196 in lifetime turnover and $654 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $18 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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