Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Chris Kempczinski ceases to be the CEO of McDonald's Corporation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kempczinski's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from McDonald's Corporation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| McDonald's CEO out by June 30? | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Chris Kempczinski has served as McDonald's chief executive since 2019, navigating the company through pandemic disruptions, labour disputes, and operational challenges including the 2024 E. coli outbreak linked to Quarter Pounder beef patties. The current order book on Polymarket prices the probability of his departure by 30 June 2026 at 4%, reflecting trader consensus that his position remains secure despite periodic operational pressures and activist shareholder activity that periodically surfaces within the quick-service restaurant sector.
CEO tenures at major restaurant chains typically extend well beyond two years absent material misconduct or catastrophic financial performance. Ray Kroc's successors and more recent transitions at comparable corporations—such as leadership changes at Starbucks or Yum! Brands—have generally occurred following sustained operational failures or explicit board-level governance disputes rather than isolated incidents. Kempczinski's compensation package and board support have remained publicly intact through recent controversies, suggesting the threshold for removal within the next 18 months remains high.
Traders monitoring this market should track quarterly earnings reports, any formal board resolutions, and statements from McDonald's largest institutional shareholders regarding leadership confidence. The company's 2025 investor day and any announcements regarding strategic operational changes could signal board sentiment. Additionally, regulatory developments concerning food safety protocols or labour relations—areas where Kempczinski has faced scrutiny—warrant attention, though historical precedent suggests such pressures alone rarely precipitate rapid executive transitions at this scale.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "McDonald's CEO out by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $18 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 4%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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