Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places second in the final. If no second place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Albania | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Austria | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Belgium | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Croatia | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Czechia | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Estonia | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| France | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| Germany | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Eurovision 2026 will take place in May, with participating nations competing across semi-finals and a grand final to determine the contest's top-placed entries. The market resolves to whichever country finishes in second place during the final show, with the European Broadcasting Union's official ranking determining the outcome. Settlement occurs after the live broadcast concludes, with a backstop resolution date of 31 July 2026 should any ambiguity arise.
Historical Eurovision results demonstrate substantial variance in second-place finishes, with no single nation dominating runner-up positions across consecutive years. Between 2020 and 2025, second place has alternated between established Eurovision powerhouses and occasional surprise contenders, reflecting the contest's unpredictability. The current 6% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders view any single nation as a relatively unlikely runner-up outcome, consistent with a field of 37–43 potential competitors. This probability formation reflects both the mathematical reality of a dispersed field and uncertainty surrounding 2026's participating countries, host nation selection, and competing entries.
Key catalysts for traders include the official announcement of participating nations (typically autumn 2025), confirmation of the host country and venue, and the eventual reveal of competing artists and songs (usually January–March 2026). The contest format—semi-final allocation, jury versus televoting dynamics, and staging logistics—influences competitive positioning. Recent Eurovision reporting from the EBU and major broadcasters will signal shifts in participation or format changes that could alter perceived probabilities for specific nations' chances at second place.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Eurovision 2nd Place 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$302 in lifetime turnover and $106K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $302 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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