Pll

Trade: California Redwoods vs. Denver Outlaws

50% YES 50% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming PLL game scheduled for May 16 at 1:00PM ET: If California Redwoods wins, the market will resolve to "California Redwoods". If Denver Outlaws wins, the market will resolve to "Denver Outlaws". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$78
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

California Redwoods vs. Denver Outlaws 50% YES50% NO

Market context

The Professional Lacrosse League's California Redwoods will face the Denver Outlaws on 16 May at 1:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for a Redwoods victory, suggesting near-parity between the two franchises in trader assessment. Settlement occurs at 17:00 UTC on the scheduled date, with provisions for postponement extending the market until completion, whilst cancellation or a tied result would trigger a 50-50 resolution.

Historical matchups between these franchises provide limited precedent for calibrating expectations, as the PLL remains a relatively young league with evolving roster compositions and competitive dynamics. Recent seasons have seen both teams experience roster turnover and coaching adjustments that materially affect performance trajectories. The current probability distribution suggests traders view this as a genuinely competitive fixture rather than favouring either side substantially.

Key variables for traders monitoring this market include injury announcements affecting either roster in the fortnight preceding the fixture, any late-season form divergence between the teams, and weather conditions at the scheduled venue. PLL scheduling occasionally experiences disruptions due to venue conflicts or logistical constraints, making postponement risk a secondary consideration. Official team rosters and recent game statistics remain the primary data points for assessing whether the 51-49 split accurately reflects underlying competitive strength or whether one side presents value relative to current pricing.

Wikipedia Context

  • Sequoia sempervirens
    Sequoia sempervirens

    Sequoia sempervirens is the sole living species of the genus Sequoia in the cypress family Cupressaceae. Common names include coast redwood, coastal redwood and California redwood. It is an evergreen, long-lived, monoecious tree living 1,200–2,200 years or more. This species includes the tallest living trees on Earth, reaching up to 116.22 m (381.3 ft) in he

  • California Redwoods (lacrosse)
    California Redwoods (lacrosse)

    The California Redwoods are a professional field lacrosse team based in San Diego, California, that competes in the Premier Lacrosse League (PLL). The team plays its home games at Torero Stadium. The Redwoods began play in the league's inaugural 2019 season.

  • Sacramento Mountain Lions
    Sacramento Mountain Lions

    The Sacramento Mountain Lions were a professional American football team based in Sacramento, California, that played in the United Football League. The franchise originated as the California Redwoods, and played its home games in San Francisco and San Jose before relocating to Hornet Stadium in Sacramento in 2010, then to Raley Field in West Sacramento in 2

  • Big Basin Redwoods State Park
    Big Basin Redwoods State Park

    Big Basin Redwoods State Park is a state park in the U.S. state of California, located in Santa Cruz County, about 36 km (22 mi) northwest of Santa Cruz. The park contains almost all of the Waddell Creek watershed, which was formed by the seismic uplift of its rim, and the erosion of its center by the many streams in its bowl-shaped depression. Part of the n

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://premierlacrosseleague.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "California Redwoods vs. Denver Outlaws" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $78 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pll contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "California Redwoods vs. Denver Outlaws"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://premierlacrosseleague.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "California Redwoods vs. Denver Outlaws"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

View live odds & trade →

Related prediction markets

Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: