Nvda

Trade: NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above 2026 on May 14?

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) on May 14 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$309
Total Volume
$495
24h Volume
$495
Open Interest
$462
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Market outcomes

$210 51% YES49% NO
$215 51% YES49% NO
$220 91% YES10% NO
$225 61% YES39% NO
$230 54% YES47% NO

Market context

NVIDIA's closing price on 14 May 2026 will determine this market's resolution. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on that date, using the official closing price from the regular trading session. Should the session be shortened due to market holidays or disrupted by trading halts or system issues, the last valid on-exchange trade price will serve as the reference point instead.

The 51% implied probability reflects balanced positioning on Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders view the outcome as a near coin-flip relative to the strike price. Historical volatility in NVIDIA's daily moves, particularly around earnings announcements and semiconductor sector developments, has typically produced swings of 2–5% in single sessions. The current probability distribution implies the market is pricing in moderate uncertainty about whether the stock will close above the specified level, with no strong directional consensus among participants.

Traders should monitor semiconductor industry catalysts in the weeks leading to settlement, including any major AI infrastructure announcements, data centre demand signals, or competitive developments from peers such as AMD or Intel. Earnings releases, guidance revisions, and macroeconomic shifts affecting technology valuations could all influence positioning. The resolution mechanism's reliance on official closing prices means after-hours trading or pre-market moves will not affect the outcome, though intraday volatility may shift order book depth and implied probabilities substantially in the days immediately before 14 May.

Wikipedia Context

  • Nvidia CUDA Compiler

    Nvidia CUDA Compiler (NVCC) is a compiler by Nvidia intended for use with CUDA. It is proprietary software.

  • GeForce 6 series
    GeForce 6 series

    The GeForce 6 series is the sixth generation of Nvidia's GeForce line of graphics processing units. Launched on April 14, 2004, the GeForce 6 family introduced PureVideo post-processing for video, SLI technology, and Shader Model 3.0 support.

  • CUDA
    CUDA

    CUDA is a proprietary parallel computing platform and application programming interface (API) that allows software to use certain types of graphics processing units (GPUs) for accelerated general-purpose processing, significantly broadening their utility in scientific and high-performance computing. CUDA was created by Nvidia starting in 2004 and was officia

  • Fat binary

    A fat binary is a computer executable program or library which has been expanded with code native to multiple instruction sets which can consequently be run on multiple processor types. This results in a file larger than a normal one-architecture binary file, thus the name.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above 2026 on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$495 in lifetime turnover and $309 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nvda contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $495 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above 2026 on May 14?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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