Trade: NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on May 13?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) on May 13 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $34K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| $210 | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| $215 | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| $220 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| $225 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| $230 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
NVIDIA's closing price on 13 May 2026 will determine whether this contract settles Yes or No. The current 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about where the stock will trade on that specific date, with both sides of the market finding equilibrium at even odds. The settlement uses the official closing price published for that trading session; if the market closes early due to holiday scheduling, that shortened session's close still applies.
Historical volatility in NVIDIA's share price provides context for interpreting this probability. Over the past three years, NVIDIA has experienced significant intraday and session-to-session swings, particularly around earnings announcements and semiconductor industry developments. A 50% probability suggests traders view the strike price as genuinely at-the-money for May 2026, with no systematic bias toward upside or downside. This equilibrium typically forms when the listed price aligns closely with consensus forward valuations given current fundamentals and expected growth trajectories.
Traders monitoring this contract should watch for semiconductor cycle developments, data centre demand signals, and any major product announcements from NVIDIA or its key customers through early 2026. Earnings reports, guidance revisions, and competitive positioning updates from rivals like AMD will influence sentiment. Broader macroeconomic conditions—particularly interest rates and technology sector rotation—will also shape equity valuations heading into May. The order book's current balance suggests the market has already priced in baseline expectations; material surprises in either direction would shift the probability away from 50%.
Wikipedia Context
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Nvidia CUDA Compiler
Nvidia CUDA Compiler (NVCC) is a compiler by Nvidia intended for use with CUDA. It is proprietary software.
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GeForce 6 seriesThe GeForce 6 series is the sixth generation of Nvidia's GeForce line of graphics processing units. Launched on April 14, 2004, the GeForce 6 family introduced PureVideo post-processing for video, SLI technology, and Shader Model 3.0 support.
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CUDACUDA is a proprietary parallel computing platform and application programming interface (API) that allows software to use certain types of graphics processing units (GPUs) for accelerated general-purpose processing, significantly broadening their utility in scientific and high-performance computing. CUDA was created by Nvidia starting in 2004 and was officia
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Fat binary
A fat binary is a computer executable program or library which has been expanded with code native to multiple instruction sets which can consequently be run on multiple processor types. This results in a file larger than a normal one-architecture binary file, thus the name.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $34K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nvda contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NVIDIA (NVDA) closes above ___ on May 13?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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