Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,600 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 1,600-1,700 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| 1,700-1,800 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 1,800-1,900 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 4% YES | 97% NO |
This market resolves on the Ethereum closing price at noon ET on 7 June 2026, using Binance's ETH/USDT 1-minute candle data. The 2% implied probability reflects a "No" outcome—meaning the price will fall outside the specified bracket range. Polymarket's order book currently prices this scenario as highly unlikely, with traders heavily favouring a price settlement within the defined parameters rather than an extreme move or data anomaly.
Historical volatility in Ethereum's daily price action provides context for assessing this probability. Over typical trading windows, ETH rarely experiences gaps or closures that deviate significantly from intraday ranges, particularly at standardised times like noon ET when institutional trading activity is elevated. The 2% probability suggests the crowd views the risk of an out-of-range close as comparable to tail-risk events—technical failures, exchange outages, or unprecedented market dislocations. Previous instances of Ethereum failing to settle within expected brackets have been exceptionally rare, typically requiring cascading exchange issues rather than organic price movement.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendars, Federal Reserve communications, and cryptocurrency regulatory announcements in the months preceding June 2026, as these drive sustained directional moves. Ethereum's correlation with Bitcoin and broader risk sentiment remains a primary driver; any major geopolitical event or monetary policy shift could influence volatility clustering. The settlement mechanism's reliance on Binance's data feed also introduces operational risk—system outages or data reporting anomalies, whilst uncommon, represent the primary non-price-related paths to "Yes" resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on June 7?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$259 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for neg risk contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $259 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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