Trade: Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 11 above___?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $87K
- Total Volume
- $141
- 24h Volume
- $115
- Open Interest
- $141
Market outcomes
| $360 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| $370 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| $380 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| $390 | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| $400 | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| $410 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $420 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| $430 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
Microsoft's share price will be assessed on the final trading day of the week commencing 11 May 2026, with settlement determined by the official closing price published for that session. The market currently reflects a 99% implied probability of the stock finishing above the specified threshold, a reading that suggests minimal downside risk priced into the order book on Polymarket. This extreme confidence level indicates traders are discounting the likelihood of a substantial single-week decline.
Historical precedent shows that blue-chip technology stocks with Microsoft's liquidity and institutional ownership rarely experience sharp weekly reversals absent material company-specific or macroeconomic shocks. Over the past decade, MSFT has closed below a given week's opening level roughly 40–45% of the time, though the magnitude of weekly moves has typically remained modest relative to intraday volatility. The current 99% probability suggests the market is pricing in either a strike price positioned well below current trading levels or an expectation of continued upward momentum through mid-May.
Traders monitoring this market should track Microsoft's earnings calendar, cloud infrastructure announcements, and broader technology sector momentum heading into the settlement window. Macroeconomic data releases—particularly inflation readings and Federal Reserve communications—could influence equity sentiment more broadly. Additionally, any material corporate developments, regulatory announcements, or shifts in artificial intelligence competitive positioning could alter the trajectory. The order book depth will determine whether the 99% probability remains stable or adjusts as new information emerges closer to the settlement date.
Wikipedia Context
-
Microsoft StoreThe Microsoft Store is a digital distribution platform operated by Microsoft. It was created as an app store for Windows 8 as the primary means of distributing Universal Windows Platform apps. With Windows 10 1803, Microsoft merged its other distribution platforms into Microsoft Store, making it a unified distribution point for apps, console games, and digit
-
Microsoft Software UpdaterMicrosoft Software Updater is a Windows and OS X based application launched in 2006, that enables customers to update and recover their mobile device firmware of a S40 or S60 or Lumia device from any Internet enabled access point. To avoid data loss users are prompted with on-screen advice on how to safely update their device.
-
Microsoft Streets & TripsMicrosoft Streets & Trips, known in other countries as Microsoft AutoRoute, is a discontinued mapping program developed and distributed by Microsoft. Functionally, the last version is a subset of Microsoft MapPoint targeted at the average consumer to do a variety of map related tasks in the North American region including the United States, Canada, and Mexic
-
Microsoft Math SolverMicrosoft Math Solver was an entry-level educational app that solved math and science problems. Developed and maintained by Microsoft, it was primarily targeted at students as a learning tool. Until 2015, it ran on Microsoft Windows. Since then, it has been developed for the web platform and mobile devices.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 11 above___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$141 in lifetime turnover and $87K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for msft contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $115 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 11 above___?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: