Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <32m | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 35-38m | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| 32-35m | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| >38m | 55% YES | 45% NO |
Michael, a biographical drama directed by Brady Corbet, will open in limited release in late April 2026 before expanding wider. The market concerns its third weekend box office performance (8-10 May), tracking whether domestic grosses will fall within specified brackets. Settlement relies on final figures from The Numbers rather than studio estimates, with ties resolving to the higher bracket.
The 2% implied probability reflects extremely low expectations for a third-weekend hold above the lowest bracket threshold. Comparable limited-release dramas typically experience steep declines by their third weekend, particularly if they fail to build momentum through word-of-mouth or critical acclaim. Recent examples like "A24" releases and prestige biopics have shown that third-weekend performance heavily depends on initial opening weekend reception and expansion strategy. Without strong platform-release momentum, third-weekend grosses for such films frequently fall below $1 million domestically.
Traders should monitor Corbet's previous film performance—his 2022 debut Crimes of the Future opened to modest returns—and track early critical reception from festival circuits or advance screenings. The expansion timeline matters considerably; if the film remains in limited release through its third weekend rather than expanding wide, grosses will naturally compress. Box office tracking reports in late April will provide crucial data on opening weekend performance and studio confidence in expansion plans, directly informing third-weekend projections. The current order book pricing reflects consensus scepticism about the film's commercial trajectory.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.the-numbers.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading ""Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$148K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $99K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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