Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, rules that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state failure-to-warn claims by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to rule that FIFRA preempts such claims if it issues a decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell holding that FIFRA preempts state failure-to-warn claims, including ruling that manufacturers cannot be held liable under state law for failing to include warnings not required or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency. If the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto Co. v.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto? | 89% YES | 11% NO |
Monsanto Co. v. Durnell concerns whether the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-level failure-to-warn claims against pesticide manufacturers. The case hinges on whether companies can face liability under state tort law for warnings not mandated or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency. A ruling in Monsanto's favour would establish federal preemption, shielding manufacturers from state-specific warning requirements. The Supreme Court's decision, expected by June 2026, will significantly affect product liability exposure across the agrochemical industry and potentially reshape state consumer protection frameworks.
The 75% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects historical precedent favouring federal preemption in regulated industries. The Supreme Court has consistently applied preemption doctrine to FDA-regulated pharmaceuticals and pesticides, notably in cases like Mutual Pharmaceutical Co. v. Bartlett and Wyeth v. Levine, though Levine ultimately rejected preemption on narrower grounds. These mixed signals create interpretive uncertainty, yet the current crowd pricing suggests traders view FIFRA's comprehensive regulatory scheme as sufficiently analogous to justify preemption here.
Traders should monitor the Court's docket for oral argument scheduling, typically occurring six to eight months before decisions. Recent commentary from agricultural law specialists and amicus briefs filed by industry groups and consumer advocates will signal how justices are framing the preemption question. Any signals regarding the Court's composition's stance on regulatory federalism—particularly from recent opinions on EPA authority—may shift probabilities as the decision window approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "SCOTUS rules in favor of Monsanto?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$207 in lifetime turnover and $232 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for monsanto company vpt durnell contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 89%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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