Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the player who hits the most doubles during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Taylor Ward | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Christian Walker | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Gabriel Moreno | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Bo Bichette | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Jarren Duran | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Bryan Reynolds | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Francisco Lindor | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Aaron Judge | 2% YES | 99% NO |
The 2026 MLB regular season will determine which player accumulates the most doubles across all 162 games. The doubles leader has historically been a relatively stable statistical category, with the title typically contested amongst established contact hitters and corner infielders who combine plate discipline with power. The current 9% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects significant uncertainty about which individual will lead the league, suggesting the market views this outcome as genuinely competitive rather than concentrated amongst a small group of favourites.
Historical context shows that doubles leaders have averaged between 50 and 55 doubles over recent seasons, with the title frequently claimed by players aged 28–35 who benefit from sustained playing time and refined batting approaches. The 2025 season will provide crucial data about which players are trending toward elite contact rates and which teams are constructing lineups that maximise doubles opportunities. Injuries, trades, and age-related decline amongst current leaders will reshape the competitive landscape considerably.
Traders should monitor spring training performance in March 2026, roster construction decisions during the off-season, and any significant injuries to established contact hitters. The MLB schedule's distribution of home games at hitter-friendly ballparks will influence individual totals, particularly for teams playing in venues with shorter distances to the gaps. Contract extensions or trades involving prolific doubles hitters in late 2025 could shift expectations materially, as could unexpected breakout seasons from younger players during the 2025 campaign.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MLB: Doubles Leader" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $43K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mlb contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: