Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on June 1 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $620 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $630 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $640 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $650 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $660 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Meta Platforms' share price on 1 June 2026 will determine whether the stock closes above a specified threshold on that date. The market currently shows 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating that traders are pricing in virtually no chance of the stock reaching the target level by the settlement date. This extreme skew reflects either a strike price substantially above current valuations or a consensus view that upside catalysts are unlikely to materialise within the timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests that single-day price targets for large-cap technology stocks rarely command zero probability unless the strike is positioned far beyond reasonable expectations. Meta's volatility profile—typical of mega-cap tech equities—has historically allowed for significant intraday and multi-week moves. The 0% reading on the order book likely reflects either a strike price set at an unrealistic premium to current spot, or a market structure where no counterparty has yet posted bids at any price level. Comparable single-date equity markets on Polymarket typically show non-zero probabilities unless the target is positioned more than 20-30% beyond recent trading ranges.
Traders monitoring this market should track Meta's earnings calendar, product announcements, and broader technology sector momentum leading into June 2026. Regulatory developments affecting artificial intelligence deployment—a material driver of Meta's valuation narrative—could shift positioning. The current zero probability on the order book suggests limited liquidity; actual trading activity and bid-ask spreads will clarify whether this reflects genuine consensus or simply an absence of market makers at the current strike level.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Meta (META) closes above 2026 on June 1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for meta contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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