Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nebojša Vukanović | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Branko Blanuša | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Siniša Karan | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Candidate G | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold general elections on 4 October 2026, at which voters in Republika Srpska will elect the Serb member of the country's tripartite presidency. The presidency operates as a collective head of state with rotating chairs, and the Serb seat has historically been contested between the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) and other Serb-majority parties. The current Serb president, Milorad Dodik, has served since 2018 and is constitutionally barred from immediate re-election after two consecutive terms.
The 9% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects significant uncertainty about the field. Previous presidential elections in 2018 saw Dodik secure the Serb seat with roughly 50% of the vote in Republika Srpska, though turnout and coalition dynamics have shifted substantially. The SDS remains the largest Serb party but faces competition from nationalist and reform-oriented alternatives. Comparable regional elections suggest incumbent-party dominance in Serb-majority areas, though recent polling from 2024 indicated potential fragmentation among Serb voters.
Traders should monitor party registration deadlines, which typically occur months before the October vote, and watch for coalition announcements between Serb parties. International attention to Bosnia's electoral framework—particularly regarding constitutional court rulings on voting procedures—could affect turnout and results. Recent statements from Dodik's allies regarding potential successors remain limited, leaving the field relatively open and explaining the low crowd probability across most candidate names.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Next Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for main election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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