Trade: Home Depot Q1 comparable sales growth?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Home Depot's announced comparable sales growth (year-over-year percentage change) for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company’s official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company’s official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $973
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| <0% | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| 0%–0.5% | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| 0.5%–1% | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| 1%+ | 34% YES | 67% NO |
Market context
Home Depot will report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 comparable sales growth in May 2026, measuring year-over-year performance across its store base. The 19% probability currently implied on Polymarket's order book reflects expectations for positive comp growth, though the market is pricing in a meaningful likelihood of flat or negative results. This settlement depends entirely on the figure disclosed in Home Depot's official earnings materials, with no consideration for subsequent revisions.
Historical context matters here: Home Depot's comparable sales have been volatile since 2022, oscillating between modest growth and contraction as consumer spending on home improvement has fluctuated with mortgage rates and economic confidence. Q1 typically faces seasonal headwinds compared to spring and summer quarters. The current 19% YES probability suggests traders are positioning for either a decline or marginal growth, reflecting broader uncertainty about consumer discretionary spending in early 2026 and the company's ability to maintain momentum from recent quarters.
Traders should monitor Home Depot's quarterly earnings announcements throughout 2025 for guidance signals and actual performance trends that will inform Q1 2026 expectations. Macroeconomic data—particularly housing starts, existing home sales, and consumer confidence indices—will shape the backdrop. The company typically reports earnings in late May, so the settlement window closing on 19 May 2026 aligns with standard disclosure timing. Any forward guidance or management commentary during prior earnings calls will provide crucial context for assessing the probability of positive comp growth.
Wikipedia Context
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Home DepotThe Home Depot, Inc., often referred to as Home Depot, is an American multinational home improvement retail corporation which sells tools, construction products, appliances, and services including fuel and transportation rentals. Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer in the United States. In fiscal 2024, the company reported $159.5 billion in r
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The Home Depot ProThe Home Depot Pro, headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, is a wholesale distributor and direct marketer of maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products for non-industrial businesses in the United States. The Home Depot Pro distributes products such as HVAC, janitorial, plumbing and security supplies.
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Home Depot U.S.A., Inc. v. Jackson
Home Depot U.S.A., Inc. v. Jackson, 587 U.S. 435 (2019), was a United States Supreme Court case that determined that a third-party defendant to a counterclaim submitted in a state-court civil action cannot remove its case to federal court. The Court explained, in a 5–4 decision, that although a third-party counterclaim defendant is a "defendant to a claim,"
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Home Depot Coach of the Year
The Coach of the Year award is given annually to college football's top head coach. The award for the Division I Football Bowl Subdivision is selected by ESPN and ABC college football analysts. Brian Kelly and Curt Cignetti are the only coaches to have been awarded multiple times.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Home Depot Q1 comparable sales growth?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $973 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kpis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Home Depot Q1 comparable sales growth?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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