Trade: Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $17K
- Total Volume
- $68K
- 24h Volume
- $14
- Open Interest
- $8K
Market outcomes
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | 13% YES | 87% NO |
Market context
The question centres on whether Israel will formally annex West Bank territory through official government declaration or legislation before the end of 2026. This differs materially from de facto control or settlement expansion, which occur regularly; the market requires a formal legal act claiming sovereignty over previously unclaimed territory. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 13% probability of such an event occurring within the next two years, reflecting scepticism amongst traders that formal annexation will materialise despite longstanding political pressure from Israeli right-wing factions.
Historical precedent suggests formal annexation remains politically costly and internationally isolated. Israel's 1980 Jerusalem Law and 1981 Golan Heights Law both triggered significant diplomatic friction and were not recognised by most nations. The Trump administration's 2020 recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights was exceptional; most international actors treat annexation as a violation of UN Resolution 242. Since 2017, Israeli governments have pursued settlement expansion and administrative control rather than formal annexation, suggesting preference for de facto arrangements that avoid triggering unified international response.
Catalysts for movement include statements from Israeli coalition partners—particularly far-right ministers—and shifts in US policy following the 2024 election. The current Netanyahu government contains annexation advocates, but coalition fragility and international pressure have historically constrained such moves. Traders should monitor Knesset legislative proposals, statements from the Foreign Ministry, and any US administration signals regarding recognition. Recent reporting from January 2025 indicates continued settlement activity but no imminent annexation legislation, consistent with the low implied probability.
Wikipedia Context
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Israeli settlementIsraeli settlements, also called Israeli colonies, are the civilian communities built by Israel throughout the Israeli-occupied territories. They are populated by Israeli citizens, almost exclusively of Jewish identity or ethnicity, and have been constructed on lands that Israel has militarily occupied since the Six-Day War in 1967. The international communi
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Alex Israel
Alex Israel is an American multimedia artist, writer, and designer from Los Angeles. His work includes large, colorful airbrushed paintings of abstract gradients and Los Angeles skies, his self-portraits, painted on shaped fiberglass panels, and multimedia installations constructed from movie-house props.
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Israeli annexation of East JerusalemThe Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem, known to Israelis as the reunification of Jerusalem, refers to the Israeli occupation of East Jerusalem during the 1967 Six-Day War, and its annexation.
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Israel Angell
Israel Angell was a Continental Army officer of the American Revolutionary War.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 13% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $769 if YES resolves true — a 669% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$68K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for israel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 13%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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