Trade: US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $73K
- Total Volume
- $108K
- 24h Volume
- $10K
- Open Interest
- $42K
Market outcomes
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | 45% YES | 56% NO |
Market context
The question hinges on whether the United States and Iran will announce a formal nuclear agreement by the end of July 2026. This encompasses any publicly declared mutual accord addressing Iranian nuclear research or weapons development, whether bilateral or multilateral, and resolves upon announcement regardless of implementation timeline. The 46% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about diplomatic prospects over the next 18 months.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals for interpreting current odds. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 took roughly two years of intensive negotiations following the interim agreement of 2013. However, the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal and subsequent years of escalating sanctions created a more fractured negotiating landscape than existed pre-2015. Recent diplomatic channels have remained largely dormant, with Iran and the US pursuing competing regional interests and neither side signalling imminent breakthrough talks. The 2024 US presidential transition introduced additional uncertainty about American negotiating posture.
Traders should monitor several concrete catalysts through mid-2026. Any formal resumption of talks—particularly through intermediaries like Oman or the EU—would likely shift probabilities materially. The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly reports on Iranian nuclear activities will continue shaping diplomatic pressure. Additionally, developments in regional conflicts, particularly involving Israel and Hezbollah, could either accelerate or derail negotiations. The Biden administration's remaining time in office and any successor's stated Iran policy will prove decisive; explicit commitment to renewed diplomacy would substantially increase deal probability, whilst continued sanctions escalation would move markets lower.
Wikipedia Context
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2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations
On April 12, 2025, Iran and the United States began a series of negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement, following a letter from US president Donald Trump to Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Trump set a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach an agreement. After the deadline passed without an agreement, Israel launched numerous strikes against
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Negotiations leading to the Iran nuclear dealThe negotiations leading to the Iran nuclear deal were talks between Iran and the P5+1 that resulted in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed in Vienna on 14 July 2015. The P5+1 consisted of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States, plus Germany and the European Un
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 45% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $222 if YES resolves true — a 122% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$108K in lifetime turnover and $73K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 45%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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