Trade: Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- $1.1M
- 24h Volume
- $339K
- Open Interest
- $195K
Market outcomes
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | 12% YES | 89% NO |
Market context
A coup attempt in Iran by June 2026 would constitute a coordinated effort by military, security forces, or state actor factions to unlawfully seize control of the government or its leadership. The current Polymarket order book implies a 10% probability of such an event occurring within the next eighteen months, reflecting trader assessment that whilst Iran's political system faces structural tensions, the threshold for an organised coup attempt remains relatively high.
Iran has experienced no successful coup d'état since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, though the regime has faced periodic internal power struggles and security challenges. The 2009 Green Movement protests and subsequent unrest demonstrated capacity for large-scale dissent but fell short of coordinated state-actor coup attempts. Historical precedent suggests that whilst factional competition within Iran's military and Revolutionary Guard Corps remains endemic, institutional mechanisms and ideological alignment around the Islamic Republic framework have prevented serious coup plotting from reaching execution. The current 10% probability reflects this historical stability against the backdrop of ongoing succession uncertainties and potential economic pressures.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments around Iran's Supreme Leadership transition, given Ayatollah Khamenei's advanced age and health status. Significant economic deterioration, international sanctions escalation, or visible fractures within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command structure could alter coup risk calculus. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional analysts has highlighted tensions between hardline and pragmatist factions within Iran's security apparatus, though these remain within normal parameters of regime competition rather than indicating imminent coup risk.
Wikipedia Context
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1953 Iranian coup d'étatOn 19 August 1953, Prime Minister of Iran Mohammad Mosaddegh was overthrown in a coup d'état that strengthened the rule of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran. In the months preceding the coup, Mosaddegh had consolidated power by orchestrating an unconstitutional referendum to dissolve parliament that was widely described as fraudulent, and he later refu
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Iran Computer and Video Games FoundationThe Iran Computer and Video Games Foundation (ICVGF), also known in English as the National Foundation for Computer Games (NFCG), is an Iranian cultural institution affiliated with the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance that supports and regulates parts of Iran's video game sector.
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Iron County MRAThe Iron County MRA is a Multiple Resource Area addition to the National Register of Historic Places, which includes 72 separate structures and historic districts within Iron County, Michigan, United States of America. These properties were identified and placed on the Register in 1983, with the exception of one property that was placed on the Register in 19
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Iron County, UtahIron County is a county in southwestern Utah, United States. As of the 2020 United States census, the population was 57,289. Its county seat is Parowan, and the largest city is Cedar City. The Cedar City, UT Micropolitan Statistical Area includes all of Iron County.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Iran coup attempt by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 12% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $833 if YES resolves true — a 733% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.1M in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $339K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Iran coup attempt by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 12%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Iran coup attempt by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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