Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 25 bps decrease | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 25 bps Increase | 78% YES | 23% NO |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| No change | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| 50+ bps increase | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The ECB's Governing Council will meet in June 2026 to set monetary policy, with particular focus on the deposit facility rate—the floor of the ECB's corridor and a key tool for signalling policy stance. This market captures the basis point change to that rate's upper bound from its level immediately before the meeting. The 0% implied probability on the order book suggests traders currently see no realistic scenario for the specific outcome represented by this option, though the full range of possible moves (typically 0, 25, 50 basis points or larger adjustments) will determine settlement.
Historical precedent matters here: since the ECB began hiking in July 2022, rate decisions have predominantly moved in 25 or 50 basis point increments, with occasional pauses. The current probability distribution reflects where we stand roughly eighteen months before the meeting—a period when economic data, inflation trajectories and labour market conditions remain highly uncertain. The ECB's forward guidance and any shift in consensus about eurozone growth or price pressures will reshape expectations substantially as 2026 approaches.
Traders should monitor eurozone inflation reports, labour cost data and GDP forecasts through early 2026, alongside any ECB communications signalling policy direction. The schedule of ECB speakers and economic releases in the months preceding June will provide crucial signals about whether the Council is contemplating further adjustments or holding rates steady. Market pricing on this contract will shift materially once clearer economic trends emerge and the ECB's own projections become available.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "ECB Interest Rates: June 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$183K in lifetime turnover and $47K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for interest rates contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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