Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Above 4% | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| Above 10% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Above 5% | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Above 3% | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Above 8% | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Above 6% | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Above 3.5% | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The market is pricing the likelihood that year-on-year Consumer Price Index growth will exceed a specified threshold at some point during 2026, based on monthly BLS releases. The 82% implied probability currently reflected in Polymarket's order book suggests traders view sustained elevated inflation as the base case through next year, though the exact threshold determines whether this represents a tight or loose constraint on price movements.
Historical context matters considerably here. The Federal Reserve has maintained restrictive policy through 2024 and into 2025, with inflation moderating from 2022 peaks but remaining above the 2% target. The comparable period is 2021–2023, when year-on-year CPI swung from near-zero to over 9% and back down to around 3–4%. Current market pricing reflects uncertainty about whether disinflation continues linearly or stalls, particularly if labour market tightness persists or energy prices spike. The high probability assigned suggests consensus expects inflation won't fall below historical norms decisively within the next twelve months.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications and rate-path expectations, which directly influence inflation trajectories through demand management. Energy markets, particularly crude oil and natural gas, carry outsized influence on headline CPI readings. Wage growth data and employment reports will signal whether demand-side pressures remain embedded. The December 2026 BLS release—the final settlement data point—means early-year readings in January and February 2026 will provide crucial signals about whether the threshold gets breached, potentially crystallising positions months before formal resolution.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How high will inflation get in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$844K in lifetime turnover and $67K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for inflation contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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