Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market tracks whether the HYPE/USD price on Chainlink's data feed will be higher or equal at 1:30AM ET on 2 May compared to 1:25AM ET the same morning—a five-minute window capturing intraday volatility. The 100% implied probability reflects extreme confidence in an upward or flat movement, though such certainty in short-duration crypto markets typically emerges when traders perceive minimal downside risk or when order book depth on PolyMarket has concentrated around one outcome.
Five-minute price windows in crypto derivatives rarely sustain 100% probabilities unless underlying spot volatility has collapsed or a specific catalyst is expected within that precise timeframe. Historical precedent suggests such extreme crowding occurs when major exchange announcements, protocol upgrades, or liquidation cascades are imminent. HYPE, the Hyperliquid native token, has experienced significant volatility since its launch, and traders monitoring this market would typically expect either a scheduled event or a period of consolidation that makes downward movement unlikely within such a narrow window.
Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's official communications for any scheduled maintenance, governance votes, or ecosystem announcements timed near the settlement window. Broader crypto market movements—particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum price action in the hours preceding 1:25AM ET—will influence HYPE's directional bias. The reliance on Chainlink's HYPE/USD feed rather than spot exchange prices means discrepancies between centralised exchange quotes and the oracle feed could create resolution disputes, though such occurrences remain uncommon for established tokens.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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