Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? | 19% YES | 82% NO |
The market concerns whether the WHO will formally declare hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by 30 June 2026. This is a high threshold requiring WHO Director-General action following advice from an Emergency Committee. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 19% probability of such a declaration within the next 18 months, reflecting trader assessment that whilst hantavirus poses genuine public health risks, the conditions for a PHEIC remain unlikely absent a dramatic escalation.
Hantavirus has caused periodic outbreaks for decades without triggering a PHEIC designation. The 1993 Four Corners outbreak in the United States killed 13 of 53 infected individuals, yet prompted no international emergency declaration. More recently, Argentina experienced a hantavirus pulmonary syndrome cluster in 2019 with human-to-human transmission, which remained contained. The WHO has declared only six PHEICs since 2009: H1N1, polio, Ebola, Zika, COVID-19, and mpox. This historical pattern suggests hantavirus would require either substantially higher case numbers, mortality rates exceeding typical patterns, or documented sustained human-to-human transmission across multiple countries to meet the PHEIC threshold.
Traders should monitor reports from endemic regions, particularly Argentina, Chile, and parts of North America where hantavirus circulates in rodent populations. The WHO's Emergency Committee convenes only when the Director-General requests assessment, typically following significant epidemiological signals. News from regional health authorities regarding cluster investigations or unusual case patterns would represent key catalysts. Seasonal variation in hantavirus transmission, peaking in autumn and winter in temperate zones, may influence outbreak timing through the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for health contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 19%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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