Trade: Haiti elections delayed again?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: After earlier delays, the first round of the 2026 Haitian legislative and presidential elections is currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026, with a potential second round set for December 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first round of voting for the presidency or the national legislative bodies, including the Senate (Sénat) and the Chamber of Deputies (Chambre des Députés), is rescheduled to take place after August 30, 2026, or otherwise does not take place by August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $468
- Total Volume
- $6K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $21
Market outcomes
| Haiti elections delayed again? | 35% YES | 65% NO |
Market context
Haiti's electoral commission has scheduled the first round of legislative and presidential elections for 30 August 2026, following multiple postponements since 2023. The current 39% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether voting will proceed as planned or face further delays. The settlement window closes at the scheduled election date, meaning any rescheduling announced before or on that date—or failure to conduct voting—resolves the market to "Yes".
Haiti's recent electoral history provides context for assessing delay risk. The 2023 elections were postponed multiple times due to gang violence, insecurity, and logistical constraints. The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) has faced persistent challenges coordinating with security forces and international observers. However, the installation of a transitional presidential council in 2024 and subsequent appointment of a prime minister created new institutional capacity. These developments suggest some improvement in governance infrastructure, though Haiti's security situation remains volatile and unpredictable.
Traders should monitor announcements from Haiti's electoral commission regarding voter registration completion, polling station preparations, and security assessments in the months preceding August 2026. International observer deployments and statements from the Organisation of American States will signal confidence levels. Gang activity patterns and any major political instability could trigger fresh postponement discussions. The 39% probability reflects that whilst institutional progress has been made, Haiti's structural challenges—particularly insecurity and administrative capacity—remain substantial enough to warrant meaningful delay risk through the settlement date.
Wikipedia Context
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2006 Haitian general electionGeneral elections were held in Haiti on 7 February 2006 to elect the replacements for the interim government of Gérard Latortue, which had been put in place after the 2004 Haiti rebellion. The elections were delayed four times, having originally been scheduled for October and November 2005. Voters elected a president, all 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
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2000 Haitian parliamentary election
Parliamentary elections were held in Haiti on May 21 and July 9, 2000, electing all 82 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and nineteen seats in the Senate. A further eight seats in the Senate were elected on November 26, alongside the presidential elections. The first round of legislative elections generated so much conflict that the fall elections were boycot
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1990–91 Haitian general election
General elections were held in Haiti between 16 December 1990 and 20 January 1991. The presidential election, held on 16 December, resulted in a victory for Jean-Bertrand Aristide of the National Front for Change and Democracy (FNCD). The FNCD also won the parliamentary elections for which voter turnout was 50.8%. It was widely reckoned as the first honest e
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Elections in Haiti
The Constitution of Haiti provides for the election of the President, Parliament, and members of local governing bodies. The 2015–16 Haitian parliamentary election were held but faced accusations of irregularity. The 2016 indirect presidential election was held following annulment of the 2015 election. Jovenel Moïse was elected in a re-run of the election, b
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Haiti elections delayed again?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 35% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $286 if YES resolves true — a 186% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$6K in lifetime turnover and $468 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for haiti contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Haiti elections delayed again?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 35%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Haiti elections delayed again?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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