Trade: Google (GOOGL) closes above 2026 on June 3?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) on June 3 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $674
- 24h Volume
- $674
- Open Interest
- $526
Market outcomes
| $365 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| $370 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| $375 | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| $380 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| $385 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
Alphabet Inc.'s share price on 3 June 2026 will determine whether GOOGL closes above a specified threshold. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 43% probability of affirmative settlement, indicating the crowd expects roughly a two-in-five chance the stock finishes above that level on that date. This probability emerges from the interplay of bids and asks across the market's liquidity pool, with traders pricing in their expectations around macroeconomic conditions, company fundamentals, and broader equity market sentiment eighteen months forward.
Historical volatility in GOOGL around specific dates offers limited predictive value given the extended timeframe, though the stock's typical daily moves and quarterly earnings cycles provide context. Over the past five years, GOOGL has demonstrated sensitivity to advertising revenue trends, regulatory developments, and artificial intelligence investment announcements. The 43% probability suggests traders view the threshold as moderately above the median expected price, requiring either positive momentum or a sustained rally to clear it.
Between now and settlement, material catalysts include quarterly earnings releases, changes to regulatory scrutiny (particularly regarding competition and data practices), shifts in the advertising market, and announcements regarding capital allocation or strategic investments in machine learning infrastructure. Macroeconomic factors—interest rate expectations, recession risks, and technology sector rotation—will also influence positioning. The settlement mechanism uses the official closing price published for 3 June 2026, with fallback provisions for trading halts or delisting events, ensuring resolution against verifiable exchange data.
Wikipedia Context
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Google Google"Google Google" is an Indian Tamil song composed by Harris Jayaraj for the soundtrack of the 2012 film Thuppakki directed by AR Murugadoss. The song written by Madhan Karky and was sung by Vijay and Andrea Jeremiah with rap portions by Krishna Iyer and Joe.
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Google Doodle
A Google Doodle is a special, temporary alteration of the logo on Google's homepages intended to commemorate holidays, events, achievements, and historical figures. The first Google Doodle honored the 1998 edition of the long-running annual Burning Man event in Black Rock City, Nevada, and was designed by co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin to notify use
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Google Toolbar
Google Toolbar was a web browser toolbar for Internet Explorer, developed by Google. It was first released in 2000 for Internet Explorer 5 and above. Google Toolbar was also distributed as a Mozilla plug-in for Firefox from September 2005 to June 2011. On December 12, 2021, the software was no longer available for download, and the main website now redirects
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Google Goggles
Google Goggles was an image recognition mobile app developed by Google. It was used for searches based on pictures taken by handheld devices. For example, taking a picture of a famous landmark searches for information about it, or taking a picture of a product's barcode would search for information on the product.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Google (GOOGL) closes above 2026 on June 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$674 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for googl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $674 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Google (GOOGL) closes above 2026 on June 3?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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